This was not how the 2023 consensus looked in January
, when China was poised to break out of its COVID lockdown like a coiled spring, and the United States would buckle under the Fed’s most intense rate-hiking cycle in 40 years and slip into recession.
The U.S. economy expanded 1.2% in the second quarter, following 1.6% growth in the first three months of the year. Hardly gangbusters, but more than comparable to a rival that should have been powering ahead. That’s comfortably below the Chinese government’s full-year target of around 5%, a goal an increasing number of analysts think will be missed.
“There was a lot of talk in the last decade or so about China’s rise and America’s decline. What we’re seeing now is a reversal of that discourse” she said.
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