Adnan R. Khan: The assassination of Qassem Soleimani could set Iraq on fire, with dire consequences for Canadian troops
Last spring, while out on a tour of the Canada-led NATO training mission in Iraq, I had a chilling exchange with a Canadian soldier from the force protection unit deployed to the Taji Airbase north of Baghdad. That morning, we were out at the Iraqi Army’s Military Engineering School where Canadian trainers were helping their Iraqi counterparts develop a course curriculum for mine clearance and improvised explosive device disposal.
“The Shia militias,” the soldier told me, requesting anonymity. “We see them sometimes watching us. They take notes on our movements. We’re not sure what they’re up to.” The goal of the NATO mission, Major-General Dany Fortin, its top commander at the time, told me, was to help Iraq fend for itself so it would no longer need to rely on foreign-backed militias. What the mission needed, he added, was time.
The Iranian regime will not collapse. Soleimani may have been a central figure, arguably Iran’s second most powerful man after Ayatollah Khamanei, but the organization he headed is well-established and thoroughly dug into it positions in the Middle East, including Iraq and Syria. Soleimani himself had headed the IRGC since 1998, enough time to leave a lasting mark on its structures and strategies.
An American military withdrawal would also produce some dangerous ripple effects. In the absence of a U.S. presence, the NATO training mission, now headed by Canadian Major-General Jennie Carignan, would be in jeopardy. The mission relies heavily on U.S. logistical support without which it is unlikely to survive.
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