Many observers predict a shift from globalization to regionalization. But here's what the data shows.
Even more importantly, at a global level, the flows of countries that are geopolitically aligned with the U.S. and China indicate no meaningful fragmentation of the world economy into rival blocs. Close allies of the U.S. and China have not substantially reduced the shares of their flows with the rival bloc. In some areas, such as imports and scientific research collaboration, U.S. allies have even increased the share of their flows with China and its allies, while the U.S.
We prefer to analyze the possibility of rising regionalization by measuring the average distance traversed by international flows, since the more common measure — the share of flows happening within regions —depending on where one chooses to draw the region boundaries. If international flows were becoming more regionalized, they would take place over shorter distances, on average. In fact, trade and many other types of flows have tended to take place over longer distances.
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