'The stars have aligned': Why mounting risks in U.S. economy will weigh on the dollar

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'The stars have aligned': Why mounting risks in U.S. economy will weigh on the dollar
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Aggressive monetary policy, combined with political risks, point to a weaker currency

“The stars have aligned for the dollar to weaken more,” said Shahab Jalinoos, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Credit Suisse. “The U.S. simply faces more risks than other major economies at this point.”

Since the U.S. rolled back some restraints on movement, economic data have rebounded but coronavirus infection numbers have also surged in many states. Last week the U.S. recorded its biggest one-day increase in cases since the start of the pandemic. Political risks have also risen for the dollar. Congress has until the end of the month to approve an extension to its emergency unemployment benefit programme. Jalinoos said a failure to extend it could inflict a “lot of pain” on the U.S. economy in the run-up to presidential elections in November.Article content continued

But last month, in a sign that markets were returning to a more even keel, four big central banks decided to scale back their use of the facility. Recent data showed central banks holding just US$153 billion of outstanding loans from the Fed, down from US$449 billion on May 27.Finally, analysts note that the U.S. currency also lost its yield advantage when the Fed cut rates in mid-March, slashing its policy rate by a full percentage point to a range of 0-0.

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