The Smart Money might finally put their Money where their Mouths are in Crude Oil. We monitor commodity market positioning and sentiment almost as muc
We monitor commodity market positioning and sentiment almost as much as we chart prices. We’ve witnessed an unusual conundrum; the spread between theof industry insiders and the net long futures market position held in crude oil is unsustainably wide. Specifically, according to the Bullish Consensus Sentiment Index, about 70% of those polled are bullish crude oil. Nonetheless, the COT Report issued by the CFTC suggests that a mere 250,000 net long contracts are currently being held.
Seasonally, the oil market has a tendency to peak in mid-to-late October, so that leaves multiple weeks of seasonal support. Further, we are still burning off the fumes of the 2020 COVID stimulus andinjection campaigns; higher fuel prices haven’t hurt the travel industry. I’ve been traveling for work and pleasure; I can attest flying in 2023 is not the same as in 2019.
We suspect some rough waters near $92.00 based on a sharp downtrend line stemming from the 2022 top. Still, if the pessimism over China’sDue to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely. There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable.
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