By 2050, 25% of the world’s population will be African
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskhedges its predictions even as it makes them. A new forecast published on July 11th says that the world’s population will reach 9.7bn in 2050, 800m more than it thought in 2002. By 2100 the world will contain between 8.9bn and 12.4bn people, with a 50/50 chance that its population will be shrinking.
Some countries are helping the Earth’s population to level out. This year 41 countries and territories are expected to lose more people than they gain from births and immigration. Ukraine’s population, ravaged by war, will shrink by around 7m. The population of Europe, the world’s oldest region, with a median age of 42 years, began shrinking in 2020 after peaking at 747m. By 2050 it is forecast to have 40m fewer inhabitants than it does today.
It is a safer bet that the distribution of humanity across the world will shift dramatically. Europe started on the path to population decline in the 1970s after the number of births per woman fell below 2.1—the level needed to replace people who die. It has since fallen to 1.5. Fertility in Africa, the world’s youngest region, is nearly three times Europe’s, and it will not fall below replacement rate until 2090. Births in Africa will increase even as the number of births per woman falls. .
These demographic shifts will have geopolitical consequences. Since 1950 China and India have been responsible for 35% of the world’s population growth. But China’s population is projected to begin falling as soon as this year. Although the Communist Party now allows women to have three children apiece, they average only 1.2. By 2050 the country will be 8% smaller. Meanwhile, India’s population will continue growing, albeit at a gradually slower rate, peaking at 1.
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