The North Carolina 9th District is holding a do-over election—and it should be close. Here’s FiveThirtyEight's guide to watching it like a pro:
in the Trump era. McCready won it by 10 points in the original 2018 election, and based on last year’s voting patterns, anything more than that will put him on pace to win districtwide. Even matching that 2018 performance, however, might be enough, since Mecklenburg may constitute an unusually large share of the 9th District vote this year. That’s because Charlotte is also holding its municipal primaries on Tuesday, which could increase turnout in those parts of the district.
On the other hand, next-door Union County — home to some farther-flung Charlotte suburbs like Indian Trail and Monroe — is still the district’s richest source of Republican votes. If Bishop wins it by more than Harris’s 20-point margin, it will be a good sign for the GOP. Finally, the six smaller counties east of Union are home to a mix of black, Native American and working-class white voters.
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