GDP won’t speak as loudly as infection rates as retailers try to figure out where the consumer is going. 🔐
Reading the economic tea leaves has become harder than ever in a coronavirus world where all the omens are bad.
“This is just an appetizer,” said Erik Lundh, senior economist at the The Conference Board, of first-quarter GDP figures. “The steak dinner is coming in the second quarter in terms of the GDP number and contraction.” “The most important data are the epidemiological data, the number of new cases, the number of deaths, the number of tests,” Lundh said. “That’s the kind of stuff that matters right now, these are leading indicators.”
The current thinking is that a lot of those people who have filed for unemployment are in industries that are highly susceptible to social distancing, like retail or travel.
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