History suggests money will more likely be made in sectors and stocks that were not caught up in the bubble of the past decade. Read more.
Then inflation suddenly returned after a long absence, and interest rates rose sharply. The bubble popped late last year, and we have just witnessed the first echo.
These are classic echo bubbles. Investors refuse to give up on ideas that recently made them a lot of money and so they keep piling back in. The echoes gradually fade away, until serial disappointments kill the faith. Typically, prices more than doubled in the final 12 months of the bubble before the peak, accompanied by other signs of mania, such as frenzied trading and nosebleed valuations.
On the way down, though, the long fall in the 10 historic bubbles was interrupted by as many as four echo bubbles — surges of at least 20 per cent. On average, the largest echo following each bubble was a 30 per cent price increase and lasted barely three months before giving up all the gains.
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