New records will be set as long as humans continue to burn fossil fuels and destroy carbon-storing ecosystems
record-breaking temperatures of more than 40°C were forecast in Britain. Schools closed and hospitals cancelled routine appointments. Trains ran less frequently for fear the tracks would buckle. The Royal Air Force had to rearrange flights from its biggest air base after the runway melted. In mainland Europe, things were bleaker still. After weeks of drought, a heatwavein France, Greece, Portugal and Spain. Parts of America are slogging through one of their hottest summers ever.
. This year’s sweltering summer comes in a world that is, on average, 1.1-1.3°C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times. Only the most optimistic assumptions about global action to reduce emissions result in projections of 1.5°C by 2100. In practice,Heatwaves are also happening in more places simultaneously.
There are two explanations for this. First, greater odds of a heatwave in any given region at any given time makes simultaneous events more likely. Second, the atmospheric conditions that cause two separate events may be linked. For instance, the same study found that certain patterns of distribution were cropping up more frequently: concurrent heatwaves in North America, Europe and central and eastern Asia appear more often than is easily explained by warming alone.
Whatever the cause, the consequences are disastrous. Heatwaves kill people and exacerbate existing health conditions. They also cause productivity to plummet. The impacts can cascade when multiple areas are affected. Consider food production. Heatwaves can cause crops to suffer, as happened this spring in India. In three northern states, yields probably fell by between 10-35%. If the failure is limited to one region, others can normally make up the shortfall.
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