Tehran cannot let the killing of the Hamas leader go unanswered. Will its response be as constrained as it was in April?
Professors gather at the University of Tehran to protest the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of Hamas, on July 31.Dennis Horak was Canada ’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Yemen from 2015 to 2018 and chargé d’affaires in Iran from 2009 to 2012.of the political head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran in the early hours of July 31 should come as no surprise to anyone. While Israel has not commented on the incident, there is little doubt who is responsible.
Tehran has already stated its intention and duty to avenge the attack, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promising “harsh punishment” of Israel. While details of how Mr. Haniyeh and his bodyguard were killed are still scarce, that fact that the Israelis were able to get to him under the noses of Tehran’s security forces and defences, in the heart of their capital, is a major embarrassment for the regime.
The assassination of Mr. Haniyeh, the head of the political wing of Hamas, based in Doha, Qatar, will also be a setback in Gaza ceasefire talks brokered by Qatar and Egypt, both of whom have condemned the attack. As Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, succinctly put it “how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”
This assault on the impunity of senior leadership figures in Hamas and Hezbollah and of Iran itself must be unnerving for Israel’s foes. The surprise attack on the Iranian capital must be seen by defence planners in the Islamic Republic as another cautionary tale. Any Iranian response to the assassination will have to take these defence and intelligence failures into account.
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