Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Real Estate Investment: The Good, the Bad and the Implications“[Housing market speculation] is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, outright speculation adds to market froth, stretching valuations and affordability. At the same time, investors help bring new projects to construction and much-needed rental units to the market … Leverage is a big equalizer in real estate. After all, you typically don’t buy a $1 million equity portfolio with 20 per cent down.
“Given all that, it is probably not surprising that we take a conservative approach to numbers heading into another reporting season, and as a result we come in below the Street for pretty much every name we cover. We are not predicting anything dramatic this earnings season but just a combination of slower revenue growth and higher loan loss provisions.
“The primary positioning story this year has been investors’ sharp increase in equity exposure … Both hedge funds and mutual funds have room to increase their equity exposures further if the market environment continues to improve. Although hedge funds have lifted net exposures this year, net leverage currently stands below the average level of the last 5 years, suggesting there is room for funds to increase their equity length in the event that a soft landing continues to materialize.
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