Opinion | The economic devastation from the coronavirus pandemic is only just beginning. By pearkes
, it's reasonable to expect the trajectory for cases and deaths to slowly stabilize and potentially fall.
Given how many people would need to be hospitalized under the herd immunity theory, that's not an option, so economies are left dependent on social distancing — reducing group interactions, movement, and close contact to prevent spread — even after case counts decline. These experiences show that lifting the various stay-at-home, lockdown, and quarantine orders that have done such a good job stemming the spread of COVID-19 can restart case count growth....does not mean a sudden economic bounce back
Concerts, cruises, conferences, crowded flights, crammed buses or subways, and large public gatherings like festivals or theme parks are going to remainrisky to public health until a vaccine arrives, even if people take precautions like aggressive hand-washing, avoiding direct contact like handshakes, and wearing masks.
We haven't even started to talk about the impact on consumers' willingness to spend or companies' willingness to invest. The almost certain decline in confidence among consumers and businesses will further exacerbate the economic shock of COVID-19. Lending programs from the Federal Reserve like those announced Friday will also ensure credit keeps flowing and reduce some of the financial feedback loops which can exacerbate downturns. The Fed will be lending billions to businesses and state or local governments, but that lending will have to be paid back rather than forgiven like small business loans or stimulus checks for consumers.
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