The Liberals are using questionable math to claim Ottawa will make major progress toward its NATO spending target
One of the two following statements is true: either Canada ’s economy is headed for the worst four-year stretch in this country’s history, including the Great Depression; or, Ottawa has bungled the math on its plan to ramp up defence spending this decade.to move Canada toward its commitment to other NATO countries to hit the alliance’s minimum defence-spending target of 2 per cent of gross domestic product. The April plan envisioned defence spending hitting 1.
The Prime Minister was, and continues to be, under pressure to meet that goal. Canada is the only NATO military power that has not laid out a plan to get to the 2-per-cent threshold, even as some alliance members have lobbied to boost that target. Pressed for details on the plan, Mr. Trudeau said defence spending would “clearly and naturally” rise to 2 per cent of GDP from 2030 levels.
The difference between the two forecasts stems from sharp variances in projections for economic growth. The PBO’s projections are in line with other economic forecasts, including those from the Finance department in the. But DND’s numbers are much lower, with average forecasted annual economic growth of just 1.6 per cent from 2026 to 2030.
Whatever the exact provenance of the forecasts, it’s clear that they are wrong – laughably wrong. The initial effect is to exaggerate the proportional size of domestic defence spending by lowballing the size of the economy, making it look as if Canada is progressing toward NATO’s goal, when it is not.
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