The CPI trade: Here's where JPMorgan sees the market going, based on these scenarios

JPMorgan laid out the potential market outcomes from Thursday's CPI report.

Investors are closely anticipating September's consumer price index report on Thursday for insight into the state of inflation as high rates and yields weigh on the market. Economists polled by Dow Jones are estimating CPI to rise 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and 3.6% from a year ago. This compares to August's 0.6% monthly gain and 3.7% increase from 12 months earlier.

"As with the previous scenario, the risk is that a more active Fed increases the probability that something breaks while also increasing the depth of the subsequent recession," the firm said. The market's move would largely depend on which CPI component surprised the most with its gain — core services would trigger the most downside, while a rise in commodities prices would trigger the least downward movement. The S & P could lose between 0.75% and 1.25% in this scenario.

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