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Tomorrow, the government will release the Fed’s preferred metric for gauging inflation, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index. The most recent forecasts are anticipating that core inflation on a month-over-month basis will double from 0.2% to 0.4%. Compared to one year ago the core PCE came at 0.5%. For the second half of 2023, core inflation was only 0.1%. With only September and December running hotter.
Although it is almost a certainty that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rates at current levels, the fact is that Federal Reserve members will certainly be influenced by an uptick in inflation. Also, a report indicates an upward revision to the fourth quarter growth estimate which could be highly supportive of the Fed’s decision to delay the first interest rate cut. They will also consider the most recent figures on retail and wholesale inventories and the U.S.
Recently, Chairman Powell expressed his concerns on 60 Minutes and issued his warning on the current level of debt in the United States. He criticized lawmakers for their ongoing policy in which they borrow money, creating more debt for future generations and most importantly creating an unsustainable fiscal policy. In his words, it is time for “an adult conversation”. During the 60 Minute interview, Powell said. “In the long run, the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path.
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