If the attack is shown to be the work of Iran's revolutionary guards, they should face consequences
for Abqaiq. America wants a more sweeping agreement than the original one, but only the pragmatic faction in Tehran, weakened by America’s approach, will make such a deal. While Iran can hit out again, the hardliners will have a veto over any talks. If America is seen as a paper tiger, they will be able to argue that Iran need not give much ground. On the contrary, they will say that their country should pile pressure on America by accelerating its nuclear programme.
The first stage of a response is to establish precisely where Saturday’s attack originated and who planned it. America must share this publicly, partly because Mr Trump’s word alone does not carry weight, but also to build a coalition and help stifle the objections of Iran’s apologists. Evidence against Iran could pave the way for new sanctions. Mr Trump has promised more—though America is already doing pretty much all it can.
That is not all. If the Abqaiq attack is the work of Iran’s revolutionary guards, they should face direct consequences. That involves covert operations, by cyber-units that can disrupt their communications and finances; and air strikes on guard units outside Iran in Syria. Ideally, these would be carried out by a coalition, but if need be, America and Saudi Arabia should act alone.
A show of force is part of the way back to nuclear talks—and to repairing those two terrible mistakes. Saudi Arabia’s allies must press it to sue for peace in Yemen. And America needs to signal to Iran that it will be reasonable in re-establishing the bargain embodied in the nuclear deal. If it demands that Iran surrenders everything, the Middle East will get nothing but more misery.
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