The 2020 stock market looks just like 2009 — and the S&P 500 is set for a 14% gain if history repeats itself, analyst says
trading activity since its March 23 low is closely tracking the index's price movements back in 2009 when it bottomed during the great financial crisis, according to a note from DataTrek published on Monday.As of June 15, 58 days off the March 23 bottom, the S&P 500 was trading 37.1% higher. Back in 2009, 58 days after the March 2009 low, the S&P 500 was trading 39.4% higher.
The takeaway from DataTrek is this:"The 2020 rally off the March lows has few historical comparables and 2009 is certainly the best fit both in terms of timing and magnitude." Second, sector allocations in the index are different today than they were 11 years ago. In June 2009, the technology sector had a weight of 18.4%. Today, when you include Google and Facebook, the index's weight in technology stocks is 32.0%, according to the note.
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