Back in 2008, the last time Thaksin Shinawatra stepped foot in Thailand, he was adored among the nation’s poorer masses and widely despised by the royalist elite who backed his removal in a coup two years earlier.
On Tuesday, Thaksin is expected to return to Thailand — ostensibly after making a deal with the same military-backed establishment that spent years overturning his party’s election victories through coups and court decisions.
The awkward 11-party alliance emerged after both camps saw their interests align in the wake of a May election that produced a stunning win for Move Forward, a party that advocated changes to a law forbidding criticism of King Maha Vajiralongkorn and other top royals. The royalist parties wanted to keep Move Forward out of power, while Thaksin sought to strike a deal that would allow him to return to Thailand after 15 years of shuttling between Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai and London.
Thaksin himself will likely head straight to jail, as he was found guilty in absentia in four corruption cases and still faces 10 years in prison. In May, he said he would go through the judicial process and also asked for permission to return, without providing more details on the request. King Maha Vajiralongkorn has the power to pardon any criminals.
This year’s election, however, saw Pheu Thai finish in second place despite being led by Thaksin’s youngest daughter Paetongtarn, who turned 37 on Monday. That marked a changing of the guard, as younger Thais become more disillusioned with an establishment that has restricted democracy.
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