The Texas Senate race has taken a dramatic turn with Attorney General Ken Paxton securing the Republican nomination after a primary runoff, thanks in part to a last-minute endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Paxton will face off against Democratic candidate James Talarico, a state representative from Austin, in a battle that could determine the fate of the Senate majority. With Trump's endorsement and a significant fundraising advantage, Paxton is seen as a formidable opponent, but Talarico's grassroots appeal and Christian faith may yet prove to be a game-changer.
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Paxton ousted four-term Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff last month on the heels of Trump’s 11th-hour endorsement to become the Republicannominee in Texas. That prompted political forecasters to shift the race in a state Trump won by nearly 14 points in 2024 from likely Republican to lean Republican.and a fundraising juggernaut in state Representative James Talarico, whose campaign reported raising $40 million through March with $9.9 million on hand.
Paxton, who has been indicted for felony fraud and was impeached by the Texas House, raised just $7.6 million through May 6 and reported having just $2.3 million in the bank. He has denied any wrongdoing. HOUSTON, TEXAS - JUNE 12: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks during the Texas GOP convention in the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston Friday, June 12, 2026.
“It would be very helpful if the president would help the people he endorsed,” Senator Cynthia Lummis, a retiring Republican from Wyoming, said when asked if Trump should put his financial might behind Paxton. Texas is an expensive state with 20 television media markets. The Republican establishment already burned through tens of millions of dollars boosting Cornyn, who was widely considered a safer bet for retaining the seat.
Senate Republicans’ campaign arm warned in an internal memo last August that a Paxton nomination would put Texas in play for“There is no doubt that Ken Paxton needs outside money to help him win this race,” said one Texas political operative. Gregg Keller, a spokesman for the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC, said Republicans are coalescing behind Paxton as he builds momentum through Election Day.
“We are thankful to the president for his endorsement and leadership and look forward to joining the Senate majority next year,” Keller said in a statement. “There is no amount of money Talarico can spend to erase his radical and dangerous record. ” Texas Democratic Senate candidate Texas state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, meets with attendees after speaking for the first time since winning the Democratic nomination in Austin, Wednesday, March 4, 2026.
Talarico has pulled in crowds in deeply Republican counties in Texas by openly talking about his Christian faith and policies to take on billionaires he says are bent on keeping the working class angry and divided to protect their interests. Republicans in turn have accused him of holding heretical views and attacked him on immigration and gender issues. A June 9 Texas Pulse poll shows a tied race.
“Paxton is now forcing the GOP to develop a completely new strategy for a state they never believed would be in play,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Democrats’ super PAC. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. They’re targeting two Democratic-held seats in states Trump won in 2024 - Georgia and Michigan - but are also defending seats in several states expected to be competitive this fall: North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Alaska and possibly Iowa and Texas.
Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., is sitting on a $356 million war chest, but it has not yet committed any money to help Paxton. MAGA Inc. spent nearly $377 million to elect Trump in 2024 and $1.7 million this cycle to boost Republicans Matt Van Epps and Clay Fuller in special congressional elections in Tennessee and Georgia.
Senate Republicans’ primary super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, intends to spend $342 million in battleground states this fall, but its strategy does not include Texas. Senate Leadership Fund declined to comment.
“The assumption is that he is” going to invest in Paxton, a Senate Republican, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said of Trump. “I think he should. He put his foot on the scale for his candidate that won. So we are assuming that he will.
” The final two years of Trump’s presidency are at stake. If Republicans lost control of Congress, Democratic-led congressional committees could investigate the Trump administration, and a Democratic Senate majority would have more control over the president’s nominees. Spokespeople for Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the White House did not respond to a request for comment. In interviews, Senate Republicans were reluctant to be seen telling the president how he should spend his war chest.
Asked if the president’s potential investment in Texas would be helpful to Senate Republicans, Curtis maintained it’s up to Trump. Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser at MAGA Inc., told Politico the super PAC is raising money to spend on campaigns but doesn’t disclose when or where it will spend. He described Texas, however, as an open Republican seat “that we’ll have to ensure that we win.
” HOUSTON, TEXAS - JUNE 12: Texas Governor Greg Abbott is shown at the Texas GOP convention in the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston Friday, June 12, 2026. Analysts say Paxton faces a significant fundraising challenge against Talarico, and some blame Trump for creating a race that didn’t need to be this close.
“National Republicans understand Paxton’s vulnerabilities - at least that he’s likely to run in a close race - and they want to be in a position to do what’s required to pull him through,” said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas. “And lots of people are pointing the finger directly at Donald Trump because it was his endorsement that created that stampede to Paxton in the runoff.
” Another possibility is that Texas Governor Greg Abbott steps in. Abbott’s political committee, Texans for Greg Abbott, reported nearly $96 million in cash on hand in February. Eduardo Leal, Texans for Greg Abbott’s press secretary, said Abbott is supporting the entire Republican ticket, but declined to say if he would fund Paxton.
“Republicans are united and focused on delivering a decisive victory, and we’re confident Texans will once again reject the radical left’s agenda,” Leal said in a statement. By entering your email and clicking Sign Up, you're agreeing to let us send you customized marketing messages about us and our advertising partners. You are also agreeing to our
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