It's difficult to predict the negative impacts of an idea or invention, but certain frameworks can help entrepreneurs see a little bit further.
when it launched in 2010. TikTok landed its billionth user in 2021, just four years after its global launch—half the time it took Facebook, YouTube, or Instagram to achieve the same milestone, and three years faster than WhatsApp. When the time frame of consumer adoption is compressed from decades to months, it's easy for entrepreneurs to ignore the deeper and often subtle behavioral changes those innovations are introducing at an accelerated rate.
Where will this idea lead? How will it change as it grows? The answer is, sometimes we just don’t know. The twists and turns of human behavior and technological progress can make it hard to see what lies ahead. I’ve found even while writing this article that many entrepreneurs and investors are reluctant to talk about the impact of technologies at scale. “You can’t imagine impact at scale,” is common pushback.
An unconsidered consequence is different from an undesired outcome. A train or car crash that kills people is an undesired outcome. It’s different from an impact that is generated from a deliberate policy or purposeful action—such as an ad-based business model—that sets in motion a series of harmful behaviors and negative events in the future.of the infinite scroll shows, it’s very easy for creators to lose control of the things they make when those inventions are manipulated by the free market.
Lastly, he recommends building your own “red team” independent of the board or investors. Raskin sees their role as to name all the ways the tech could be abused for good and for ill. “It would create a ‘we know, you know’ shame around using the tech for nefarious purposes,” he says.
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