Robert Both, a senior macro strategist at TD Securities, views President Trump's threats of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico as more bark than bite. This move is seen as a negotiating tactic ahead of the USMCA renewal in 2026, rather than an empty threat. However, the potential impact of new tariffs could be severe, reversing decades of trade liberalization in North America.
“President Trump has opened another front in his trade war s by threatening a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico in response to US concerns around border security. We believe this is a negotiating tactic to apply more leverage ahead of the USMCA renewal in 2026, but it should not be taken as an empty threat as the President has tools to impose new tariffs without congressional approval.
Mr. Ollenberger has outperform ratings on MEG Energy Corp., Tourmaline Oil Corp., Suncor Energy Inc., ARC Resources Ltd., Imperial Oil Ltd., Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus Energy Inc.BofA Securities’ Australia-based quantitative strategist Nigel Tupper released an update on his global wave model, which is one I watch closely,
“In aggregate, the Global Wave moved sideways last month as two weaker components were offset by four positive components. A peak signal is only triggered when the aggregate of all the data deteriorates by a quantitatively determined significant amount. In the past, a positive signal from the Global Wave was positive for global equity markets and cyclical global sectors including Financials, Tech, and Industrials.
TRADE WAR USMCA CANADA MEXICO THREATS
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