An overview of what's going on in the tropics....
over the Northern Caribbean. Westerly wind shear is slowly diminishing & Franklin seems to be getting its act together now after the move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Furthermore... satellite data shows better outflow over the top of the tropical cyclone - another indicator of likely intensification soon. A turn more to the northeast & even east is in progress now but a sharp bend to the north can be expected by Saturday.
It is still very early on this potential system, but I do have reasonable confidence that a tropical system “of some sort” will eventually manifest itself over the Gulf with a movement some semblance of north ... & eventually a threat to some part of the U.S. Gulf coast &/or Florida. There will be lots of folks traveling late next week with Labor Day weekend just around the corner so stay up to date on the latest forecasts.
Satellite sector below centered on the E. Pacific shows the possible disturbance that could lead to Gulf development over & near Central America. A prominent upper level low can also be seen over the far Southern Gulf of Mexico & is moving westward. This feature should help pull the disturbance northward. Strong wind shear is evident - 30+ mph - but should trend lower with time further north.over the Eastern Atlantic after coming off the coast of Africa last Wed.
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