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- The start of a new month can mean only one thing for investors: time for the all-important monthly U.S. employment report, but also for a likely European Central Bank rate cut, as well as the outcome of India's marathon general election.
Still, policymakers have urged patience on rate cuts, saying they would like to see several months of data to be sure inflation is heading back towards their 2% target. The employment report could prove the economy is losing steam if it shows the slowdown in job creation has continued.India's six-week long national election is in its final stages, with votes due to be counted on June 4. Investors are gearing up for Prime Minister Narendra Modi securing a third term in office.
Mexicans also go the polls on Sunday, at which ruling party hopeful Claudia Sheinbaum could become the first woman president. The peso has sold heavily in the past week, as traders ponder the uncertainty for the economy stemming from the vote. The oil market is entering into a sweet spot in the year - the summer driving season in the United States. The price of crude is up 10% year-on-year and intensifying Middle East tensions are keeping the market nervous.
April saw 38 companies in the UK under offer, the most since June 2022, according to Peel Hunt. Take one away and that high-water mark doesn't change. Policymakers have practically promised a June cut that is expected to lower the bank's key rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. So all focus will be on what hints ECB boss Christine Lagarde gives on what happens next.
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