A dicey offseason is looming for Aaron Nola and the Phillies. That, and bit more on Marcus Mariota and Johan Rojas.
are less than three months away from having to wrestle with their most difficult offseason decision in the last 40 years.The Phillies have never faced the potential of having to part ways with a franchise legend before. Not like this. Jayson Werth was the closest they came to that in the last era. But he’d only been with the team for a few seasons when the Phillies goofed and let him walk.
Nola? It feels different. Uncomfortably so. The Phillies made out like bandits on the four-year, $45 million contract extension he signed before the 2019 season. That’s not their fault, of course. It was a wise business decision, one that guaranteed Nola a life-changing bag of money in exchange for delaying free agency by a couple of years. From a risk-management perspective, you can’t separate that deal from the ones the Phillies gave Odúbel Herrera and Scott Kingery.
The reality likely would have been more complex. Nola would have been hitting free agency after a year in which he posted a 4.63 ERA in 180 2/3 innings. That year’s Cy Young winner, Robbie Ray, signed for five years and $115 million. Maybe Nola would have gotten that. Maybe four years, $100 million, or six years, $120 million. If he’d played his cards perfectly, he might have gone the Carlos Rodon route, signing a one-year deal and then striking it big after his electric 2022 season.
There’s a huge money gap between those two tiers. The Phillies’ problem is that it is impossible to project where Nola’s deal will end up skewing. For a pitcher who has suddenly become among the more home-run prone in the majors, they’ll face a lot more risk than teams who play in more pitcher-friendly environments. But he also means a lot more to the franchise.
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