A powerful magnitude 5.1-5.3 quake just rocked the Greek capital, Athens. Here's what happened, what caused it, what to expect next and what not to believe:
There are plenty of reports coming of minor structural damage, power outages, people trapped in elevators and minor injuries – but, so far, there haven't been any reports of any major injuries or deaths. At that magnitude and shaking intensity near several metropolitan areas, it’s not surprising that damage has occurred; thethis time around says the damage will be “moderate” near the epicentre, and anywhere from “none” to “light” in the peripheries, including Athens.
The US has an automated system that, based on magnitude, intensity and other factors, estimates the potential number of deaths and thethat the quake may cause. In this case, there is a 50% chance that there will be 0 to 1 deaths, and a 41% chance of there being no more than 10. So far, it looks like there are zero, fortunately.
I’ll update this post if an aftershock forecast comes in, but in general, the mostly likely pattern remains somewhat similar. In the first few days of the mainshock, there will be plenty of aftershocks at varying magnitudes, with some being close to the mainshock’s own. Generally speaking, as time goes by, the number of powerful aftershocks and the frequency of aftershocks will go down.
Saying that, there is a non-zero chance that an aftershock more powerful than the mainshock will crop up, particularly in the hours and days nearer to the mainshock. If that’s the case, then that’ll become the new mainshock, and the magnitude 5.3/5.1 event will become a powerful foreshock.
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