Here are some strategies to protect your portfolio from a potential Covid-19 resurgence:
With the COVID-19 concerned risk reversal that started on May 5th, risk off assets have given meaningful signals they aren’t dead yet . TLT looks a bit impaired and may be capped in the $165- 166 range but GLD looks to have significant upside as investors look to benefit from a move into negative SPX correlation. The short end of the US yield curve curve looks pretty well anchored at near zero for the rest of the calendar year.
GLD correlation usually goes negative when crisis occurs as it did in February and March 2020. But in the recovery rally GLD went neutral correlation. I see GLD-SPX correlations going back towards their potential -30%+. As a result of the uncertainties around the virus, I think the options market could turn quickly to bullish on GLD. If i'm correct, GLD could meaningfully move into the $170s as investors look for diversification going forward.
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