Inflation has cooled, but investors risk being caught off guard by a 'head fake' that could kill the latest stock-market rally
has risen more than 6%. The indexes in 2022 tumbled by 33% and 19%, respectively, with valuations crashing as inflation hit 40-year highs.
"To the upside, inflation of sticky prices like violin lessons, veterinarian fees, car repairs, and other services provided by small businesses and sole proprietors was still accelerating in late 2022—and that stickiness could make inflation rebound later this year or in 2024 as growth gets back on track," Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in Friday note about the PCE report.
"The risk is that if the Fed were to ease up [rate hikes], the economy could re-accelerate and inflation goes higher," Draho said. For now, the equity market looks priced for an economic soft-landing outcome, said Draho. UBS GWM has a 4,000 price target on the S&P 500, implying the broad index will end 2023 slightly lower.
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