Starved for yield? U.S. retail investors likely to seek Treasuries again this year

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Starved for yield? U.S. retail investors likely to seek Treasuries again this year
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Starved for yield? U.S. retail investors likely to seek Treasuries again this year GlobeInvestor

as interest rates paid on securities maturing in a year or less hit their highest levels in a decade, promising consumers a far greater short-term return than a bank savings account or most certificates of deposit.

The Congressional Budget Office projected the U.S. budget deficit will grow by a cumulative $12 trillion over the next 10 years to reach 4.4 percent of gross domestic product on an annual basis, compared with the 2.9 percent average over the last 50 years. That translates to annual deficits of roughly $1 trillion.

At bill auctions for the first two months of the year, for instance, individual investments totaled roughly $40 billion, nearly two-and-a-half times the $16.6 billion allotted a year earlier, data from the Office of Debt Management showed. Vincent Deluard, global macro strategist, at INTL FCStone Financial in San Francisco said he was part of that domestic flight to U.S. debt.

This arbitrage on cash-like instruments from individual investors has supported the short-end of the curve.That said, Deluard noted that over the longer term, this re-allocation from brokerage or savings accounts is hampered by the fact that cash balances are at historically low levels. Reversing that stock market allocation would free about $4 trillion in savings that could possibly go into the Treasury market, Deluard said.Annual U.S. Treasury supply has nearly doubled since 2015. At the end of 2018, Treasury supply totaled $1.36 trillion from about $688 billion in 2015, according to Fed and Morgan Stanley data.

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