The data provides the first look at death trends this year across the country and offers more evidence that the official tally of coronavirus deaths is low.
Federal data released this week shows that the number of deaths recorded in the U.S. this year is higher than normal, outpacing deaths attributed to COVID-19 in states that have been hit hardest by the virus.
"When we begin to look at it retrospectively, it's going to help discern, or maybe develop a more accurate estimate of what the true number of deaths might have been from COVID-19,” said Dr. Matthew Boulton, a professor at the University of Michigan School of Public Health who also serves as Editor-in-Chief for the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.
Death numbers for March and April are expected to increase because most states are still compiling figures. It will take months or years more before researchers know with certainty how many people actually died from COVID-19. Scientists say that delay is common for any infectious disease and more so for new pathogens like the novel coronavirus.
“There is a new mental calculation: Is this test administered at the hospital worth the potential risk of being exposed to COVID-19?” said Dr. Sadiya Khan, an assistant professor at the Feinberg School of Medicine at Northwestern University in Chicago. “Our ER, as well as many others, are seeing far fewer patients because people are scared to come in.”
In New York, deaths attributed to pneumonia are up 651% for March 22 through April 11. Those counts are up 670% in New Jersey and 172% in Michigan. The three states reported 7,430 pneumonia deaths above the typical 1,419. “Without a doubt,” some of those unclassified pneumonia deaths include uncounted COVID-19 cases and could help explain the unusually high number of fatalities, said Boulton from the University of Michigan.
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