Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
BMO chief economist Doug Porter sees signs of stabilization in Canadian home prices, but he remains skeptical about a sustained rally,
“Canadian home prices ticked up 0.2% in March in seasonally adjusted terms. But that was only a miniscule move stacked up against the near16% drop in the prior 12 months. Sales also nudged up 1.4% month-over-month in adjusted terms, but that left them down 34.4% y/y and more than 20% below a 10-year average. The big story is the drought of homes available for sale.
“Following a light Week 1, 30 S&P 500 companies comprising 10% of earnings have reported. Results have been solid: 90% of companies beat on EPS, 73% on sales, and 67% on both, well above last quarter’s 54%/83%/46% post-Week 1 and historical average of 67%/64%/48%.
“We note Dec 23 silver is up 13.6% since mid-March and our contract target of $28/oz is within touching distance. We think that the silver bull market has just begun and that prices should rise more than we previously thought, considering that many of the fundamental drivers of the bull market have yet to fully play out .
The fundamental story for a precious metal bull market is comparable in our view the 2H’07 and early 2008 macroeconomic environment – in essence, weakening DM growth and strengthening EM growth …Speculative interest has much further to run against this sound fundamental backdrop
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