Why there is some logic behind paper tigers beating analytical darlings in hockey.
It came shortly after the 2013-14 season. As a Toronto Maple Leafs fan, that was a year when analytics was very polarizing in the conversations surrounding them, because they were the team defying the numbers. Under head coach Randy Carlyle, they were finding a way to win games despite some extremely lopsided shot totals.
One thing was driven into me very clearly: more shot attempts means more shots on net, which means more chances for goals, which means more goals. The logic was pretty easy to grasp, and now I understood why everyone kept doubting Carlyle’s Leafs.
Of course, how games were evaluated and which information was more important to consider changed as the information itself changed. In the second half of the 2010s’, expected goals entered the conversation, and now we had a way to see which shot attempts had more value than others, and which teams were creating more scoring chances.
No team better exemplifies that than the Carolina Hurricanes. Ever since Rod Brind’Amour took over as head coach in 2018-19, the Canes have turned into one of the top possession teams in the league and been a consistently strong team in the regular season. In those six years, they’re first in 5v5 shot attempt share, 5v5 expected goal share, and in shot differential per game played, and all three are by a wide margin.
So when the Hurricanes face a team like the New York Rangers in the playoffs this season, who were the second-worst playoff team in 5v5 expected goal share this season, it would seem like that’s a walk in the park. But a team like the Rangers is a surprising kryptonite to the Canes, and that was showcased in their second-round series defeat.
In fact, just two years ago, a similar Rangers team ousted the Canes in the second round in similar fashion. But then they met a Tampa Bay Lightning team in the following round that could go toe-to-toe with them in terms of finishing but would overwhelm them with possession to get more chances.
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