If the NCAA selection committee wants to have the very best teams awarded at-large bids, the definition of “best” must be rethought.
Fairleigh Dickinson University guard Joe Munden Jr. celebrates beating Purdue University 63-58 after the first-round upset in the NCAA Tournament on March 17, 2023, in Columbus, Ohio.
When the selection committee moved from the rating percentage index, or RPI, to the NCAA evaluation tool, or NET, this was a positive move forward to capture team performance. Incorporating the KenPom metric was a welcome addition. However, by weighting all games during the season the same, the committee is incorrectly seeding teams, resulting in numerous upsets that are becoming more commonplace.
The most blatant example of this phenomenon in 2023 was Purdue University, which was given a No. 1 seed. It started 22-1, including Top 25 victories over Marquette and Gonzaga. The team’s season ended at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson University during the Round of 64. Though this outcome was certainly a surprise, it was not shocking, given how Purdue performed over the prior month. Seeding it as a No.
Early season games rarely provide an accurate assessment of a team’s performance in March. Since the selection committee encourages scheduling preconference games against the very best competition, a November win or loss gets weighted into at-large bid assessment and seeding the same as a late-conference outcome.One solution is that conferences begin their conference play earlier in the season, allowing time for nonconference games in February.
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