Sentiment speaks: $2,428 target for gold
I have now been writing public articles for over 11 years on Seeking Alpha. And, through the years, I have covered many topics publicly, including the S&P 500, oil, the US Dollar, bonds, emerging markets, and many others. And, those that have tracked us over that time have recognized the accuracy of not only our short term calls but of our long term ones as well. Of course, we will never be correct all the time, but I think our long-term record speaks for itself.
- December 2015: Called for a major bottom in gold the night we struck the bottom, despite the market turning extremely bearish at the time and expecting a break down below $1,000. - March 2020: Called for a major market bottom at 2200SPX, with an expectation of a rally to at least 4000SPX. Market bottomed within 8 points of our target.
As we now know, gold topped out at $1,921, and began a 4-year decline until it bottomed at $1,050. But, at the time I was writing about a larger degree top being struck, these are a sample of the comments I received from Seeking Alpha readers:"Your TA is useless. You don't understand the fundamentals because you only look to the past. Gold bulls are forward thinking. The times they are a changing...
Now, for those that believe that the only reason metals struck a top in 2011 was due to"manipulation," well, I hope you do not hate me if I suggest you remove your blinders. A number of years ago, I was asked to pen my views on the"manipulation" perspective, and you can feel free to read it here:Getting back to the 2011 metals market, I want to also note that I provided my downside targets for gold even before it topped. Yes, I know.
As you can see, it was quite clear at the time that the"fundamentals" were keeping most metals bulls looking to the long side. And, amazingly, those same fundamentals kept the metals bulls looking to the long side of the market during the entire decline.
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