Emerging markets may unlock opportunities in everything from Indian equities to Brazil’s currency and Chinese bonds. Read more
Yet, it is in pockets of emerging economies that antidotes to stagflation exist: faster growth, accommodative policy and inflation-adjusted returns. That may unlock opportunities in everything from Indian equities to Brazil’s currency and Chinese bonds.
That’s unfamiliar territory for a generation of traders. Since 1982, growth and inflation risks have gone hand in hand, while recessions reset economies with lower prices. But now, consumer price indexes and growth have decoupled, both worsening simultaneously and calling for an entirely new trading paradigm.Article contentStagflation in the U.S.
“Economies most insulated from the negative demand shock are net food-and-energy exporters, those less reliant on foreign capital and those that still have policy space,” Trinh said. “Economies most capable of mitigating the negative supply shock will have a relatively lower weight for food and energy in their consumer price indexes and import baskets.”China’s bias toward a looser monetary policy, a popular theme for global investors since the start of the year, may become even more compelling.
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