Canadian deal-making activity has been subdued since the recent peak in early 2022, with third-quarter activity coming in well below the most recent 10-year average
Protectionism under a second Trump administration may end up spurring more deal-making in Canada, experts say, as businesses prioritize maintaining access to the U.S. market.
“Either way it is better for you to be in the United States and be in the market than out of the market,” he said. “That is why it is called protectionism.” But any regulatory changes under the next U.S. president “is largely going to be a U.S. phenomenon,” said Stephen Ng, managing director of boutique investment bank Crosbie & Co.
“To the extent there are across-the-board tariffs, that will impact certain Canadian companies that have a high exposure of U.S. sales and that lessens the value of those companies, which makes them less attractive to acquire,” Mr. Bandukwala said, adding those companies would also have less capacity to make acquisitions themselves.
Loosening regulatory barriers in the U.S., or even installing more deal-friendly regulators, is unlikely to make much of a difference to Canadian M&A activity, Ms. Altshuler said, since only very large transactions tend to face significant regulatory scrutiny and Canadian deals – even cross-border deals – are generally smaller.
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