With mass shootings happening randomly every year in the United States, it may seem that there is no way to predict where the next horrific event is most likely to occur. In a new study published by the journal Risk Analysis, scientists at Iowa State University calculate the annual probability of a mass shooting in every state and at public places such as shopping malls and schools.
to a database of mass shootings recorded from 1966 to 2020 by the Violence Project. The Violence Project defines a mass shooting as an incident with four or more victims killed by a firearm in a public place.
After they generated a probability distribution of annual mass shootings in the U.S., the scientists used two different models to simulate the annual number of mass shootings in each state. The results were used to calculate the expected number of mass shootings and the probability that at least one mass shooting would occur in each state in one year.
Importantly, MacKenzie points out that the probability of a mass shooting at a specific location depends on the definition of a mass shooting. In contrast to the Violence Project, the Gun Violence Archive defines a mass shooting as four or more individuals shot, injured or killed, in any location, not necessarily a public location. As a result, The Gun Violence Archive has collected data on shootings that occur in both public and private locations as well as targeted shootings .
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