The chance of there being no pledged delegate majority—which could potentially lead to a contested convention—is high and increasing, NateSilver538 says.
Now then, what about potential shortcomings of the model? First, as I mentioned, the lack of polling data in post-New Hampshire states is a problem. That data should begin to trickle in over the next couple of weeks .
Also, the model may not be guessing right about the bounces that will emerge from New Hampshire, especially for Klobuchar. It does give Klobuchar some credit for substantially beating expectations in New Hampshire. But media coverage on election night practically treated Klobuchar — not Sanders — as the winner in New Hampshire .
Klobuchar needs a huge bounce given that she’s at only 4 percent in national polls. But there’s the possibility of a virtuous circle for Klobuchar, where she rises in the polls, that rise begets more media coverage, which begets more endorsements and money raised, which begets more media coverage, which begets a further polling rise, and so forth. I don’t know how high that possibility is.
, New Hampshire introduced another possibility for split winners, where one candidate gets the most delegates and the other gets the most votes. Our policies for these cases are still a work in progress. But we’re trying to reflect how the media covers the races, since post-primary bounces depend heavily on media coverage.
In the case of New Hampshire in particular, the delegate race was a tie. Thus, Sanders gets 90 percent of the credit for winning New Hampshire — 80 percent for winning the popular vote plus half of 20 percent for tying in delegates — while Buttigieg gets 10 percent.
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