Astronomers get to name comets and biologists get to name species, but come up w...
BOSTON - Astronomers get to name comets and biologists get to name species, but come up with something cool in economics and you might be memorialized with a law or a rule or a “curve.”
In a paper released earlier this year, she said the unemployment rate can cut through all that. It is a widely used and easily understood statistic that captures why recessions matter. It also turns out that when the three-month average unemployment rate rises half a percentage point above the low of the previous year, the economy has just or is about to enter a period of contraction.
The unemployment rule would identify a recession “nearly immediately and long before it has been officially recognized,” Sahm said at a May seminar sponsored by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth on proposals for fighting the next downturn. While developed as part of a specific proposal for a new “automatic stabilizer,” the Sahm Rule now appears destined for broader use. The St. Louis Federal Reserve on Wednesday added the “Sahm Rule Recession Indicator” to its massive Federal Reserve Economic Data system, FRED, a popular and publicly accessible tool that offers up everything from the number of jobs in Alabama to British inflation since the early 1200s.
The current unemployment rate of 3.7% is considered unnaturally low by many Fed officials, and policymakers in fact expect it to rise about half a percentage point without an actual contraction of gross domestic product.
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