Putin's invasion permanently weakened Russian oil and gas
shows how Russia's projected gas exports, shown in the chart above, have plunged compared to last year.Under IEA's long-term outlook to 2050, Russia's exports never return to 2021 levels.Western sanctions, Vladimir Putin's cuts in gas exports to Europe, and Europe's efforts to wean itself off Russian fuels are all slated to erode Russia's market position.
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is prompting a wholesale reorientation of global energy trade, leaving Russia with a much-diminished position," the report notes.
"Russia’s reorientation to Asian markets is particularly challenging in the case of natural gas, as the market opportunity for large-scale additional deliveries to China is limited," the IEA said. "Longer-term prospects are weakened by uncertainties over demand, as well as restricted access to international capital and technologies to develop more challenging fields and LNG projects."In the nearer term, the effects of EU restrictions on Russian oil that take effect in December, as well as the G7 efforts to impose a price cap on the country's barrels.
In the longer term, the report generally sees Russia's invasion as a catalyst for low-carbon energy transition, despite some short-term movement back toward coal.