Eurasia expert Silvia Boltuc told Newsweek a new Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict could 'dramatically threaten' the International North-South Transport Corridor.
, and now a more than month-long Azerbaijani blockade of ethnic Armenian-controlled territory has once again raised tensions between the two rivals to a potentially dangerous level.
"I think Russia is in a very difficult situation, and Moscow is now very dissatisfied with the actions of both Baku [capital of Azerbaijan] and Yerevan [capital of Armenia]Newsweek"From the very beginning it was very difficult for Moscow to mediate a peace process," Ignatov said.
"Armenia increasingly believes that Moscow cannot be a guarantor of security," Ignatov said,"and Azerbaijan sees Russia as an obstacle to ending the conflict as soon as possible on its own terms." As for Iran, its caution was rooted not only in concerns over security, but also in geography and demographics. Specifically, Tehran worried about the potential for Azerbaijan to seize parts of Armenia's Syunik and Vayor Datz regions in a bid to establish the"Zangezur corridor" connecting Azerbaijan's mainland territory to its Nakhichvan exclave province bordering Armenia, Iran and Turkey.
A map published in October 22 by the Eurasian Development Bank outlines the Western, Trans-Caspian, Easter and Russia-Georgia-Armenia routes of the International North-South Transport Corridor, alongside other North Eurasian, Central Eurasian, Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia and North-South routes.
"Therefore, if the war between Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan takes place near the borders of Iran and its result led to threat or blockage of the Iran-Armenia border," he added,"there is a possibility of Iran's military reaction that can make the conditions of the region more complicated than the current situation."
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