Overall, Republicans received roughly 5 percent more votes than Democrats did. They just didn't come in the places they needed them.
Some observers, like Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wassermann, highlighted other factors that could have contributed to the lack of movement in the GOP's favor in this year's U.S. House races. Those factors include strong Democratic incumbents defeating weaker Republican challengers, low turnout in urban seats considered safe for Democrats and a larger than usual share of uncontested Republican House races.
Remarkable: the swing in the House vote vs. 2020 is currently R+7.9 , but Rs on track to net just ~2% of House seats. Biggest reasons:3) More uncontested R racesBut that seeming lack of movement could also be a matter of perspective. While Republicans did not have the night they hoped, most projections show the party is still likely to regain its majority in the House this cycle, largely thanks to the GOP's overperformance in liberal strongholdsand Oregon. Meanwhile, this cycle's results only build on preexisting momentum from the last election, in which Republicans gained 14 seats.
In that sense, one could say the"red wave" may have come in two installments. If current projections hold, political forecasters predict Republicans stand to have gained between 24 and 32 seats over where they were in 2020, representing one of the largest partisan swings in U.S. history.
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