Liberal activists focus solely on the gender gap at their peril: women are almost as likely as men to oppose abortion
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThat would put Republicans in swing states at risk. However, liberal activists focus solely on the gender gap at their peril: women are almost as likely as men to oppose abortion. The most reliable backers of abortion rights are the 30% of Americans with no religious affiliation.
Views on abortion have been fairly stable over time. Big majorities favour legal abortion in cases of rape or health risks. Since 2002 the share of participants in the General Social Survey, a large poll, who say abortion, for any reason, should be legal has climbed from 40% to 54%. Compared with the change in support for gay marriage, however, this increase looks modest.
Although state-level polls on abortion are sparse, public opinion in each state can be estimated using demographic and geographic patterns in national surveys. This method shows that just 12 of the 50 states have majorities that want to ban abortion, or allow it only if the mother’s life is at risk. In contrast, 19 states have laws limiting abortion that would take effect the dayis reversed. They include Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, where an estimated 60% of people favour abortion rights.
In a sample of 13,659 people surveyed by YouGov, a pollster, just 28% of white or older Hispanic evangelicals wanted abortion to be “always” or “mostly” legal. Despite the Catholic and Orthodox churches’ opposition, 53% of whites and 65% of Hispanics in these groups favoured abortion rights. Among agnostics and people who did not list a religion, the shares were 61% for those who did not attend college, and 79% for people who did. Other strong backers were Jews and atheists .
America’s political coalitions reflect these cleavages already. However, whites who are non-evangelical Protestants, or who are not religiously affiliated and lack college degrees, favour abortion rights more than they do Democratic candidates. Their loyalty may now be up for grabs.
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