Alek Manoah and the Blue Jays try to sweep away the Red Sox. What are the best bets for tonight's series finale?
The Blue Jays are 38-18 in their last 56 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Find moreThis advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.The starting pitching edge in this matchup has to go to Toronto. Manoah has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB across 14 starts and has a very encouraging profile.
Pivetta has been a good arm for the Red Sox this season, he’s just not in the same class as Manoah. I worry about his .259 BABIP, which is the lowest mark of his career by .29 points. His HR/FB ratio is also the lowest mark of his career by 5%. Eventually, those are both due to regress and Pivetta will start to have a run of bad luck, right? His 4.06 xERA likely paints a more accurate picture — not terrible, but not what he’s been to date.
Both lineups have been red hot in recent games. Over the last 10 days, the Red Sox rank second in wOBA and fourth in wRC+. The Blue Jays are directly behind, ranking third in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ during that same span. I don’t see a huge edge at the plate for either team, but I see a definite edge for Toronto in the starting pitching department, and the line movement in the Blue Jays’ favor is warranted. Manoah is one of the best pitchers in MLB until further notice. Some may be expecting a drop-off to come, but his peripherals are all superb and we have a decent sample size of over 200 innings across the last two seasons.
The Blue Jays are 38-18 in their last 56 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-1 in their last five during Game 3 of a series.Article content
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