Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
BMO chief economist Doug Porter sees some signs that the Bank of Canada won’t be as aggressive with cuts as expected,
“The BoC has been the most aggressive rate cutter in the world , and is primed to do more. Markets are egging them on, leaning to a follow-up 50 bp chop in December. But in the head-long rush to bring rates down fast, note three things: 1) Wages are proving to be mighty sticky. Yes, the Bank has chosen to look past the near-5% year-over-year increases in the LFS’s average hourly wage measure, since their micro-data shows underlying trends are closer to 4%.
“The Q3/24 reporting season is well underway in Canada, with 75% of TSX members having already reported. So far, TSX Q3 earnings are coming in at C$357 per share, which is 1.2% above expectations set at the start of the reporting season. The earnings beat ratio stands at a healthy 61% versus a 10-year avg. of 58%. In fact, outside of Energy and Discretionary, all sectors delivered a positive earnings surprise. TSX Q3 EPS growth stands at -1.
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