What US airports can tell us about President Trump's 2020 chances. (1/5)
The bad news for Democrats? They are backsliding in"Regional Metros" — the smaller cities and suburbs where residents would have to connect through a larger hub airport to travel internationally, and where Trump's hard line on immigration and protectionism is likelier to resonate. In 2016, Trump took 55 percent of the vote in these metros, up from Mitt Romney's 53 percent in 2012 and John McCain's 51 percent in 2008.
For example, even though residents of"Global Metros" make up 41 percent of the vote nationally, they make up 76 percent of the vote in California, 66 percent in Illinois, 97 percent in Maryland, 64 percent in Massachusetts, 89 percent in New Jersey and 61 percent in New York — all states that Democrats win comfortably anyway. They're also 50 percent of the vote in Texas, a state where Democrats are on the rise but Trump still won by 9 points in 2016.
Meanwhile,"Regional Metros" and nonmetro areas — the places where Trump achieved liftoff in 2016 — are just 45 percent of the electorate nationally, but they're significantly over-represented in the most critical battlegrounds: They make up 56 percent of the vote in Michigan, 59 percent in North Carolina, 46 percent in Pennsylvania and 68 percent in Wisconsin.
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