+34
A review of more than three decades of data suggests Quebec governments are more likely to abandon or weaken campaign pledges than fulfill them. Researchers say economic conditions, the length of a government's mandate and whether a promise falls within its authority affect its chances of success.
For weeks, Quebec politicians have been travelling around the province, promising to fix health care, improve education and lower the cost of living. But a review of more than three decades of data shows a provincial government is more likely to break or walk back a campaign pledge than it is to keep it.
The audio version of this article is generated by AI-based technology. Mispronunciations can occur. We are working with our partners to continually review and improve the results. People vote on the second day of advance voting, ahead of provincial elections, in Montreal on Monday, Sept. 28, 2026.
For weeks, Quebec politicians have been travelling around the province, promising to fix health care, improve education and lower the cost of living. But with voters heading to the polls on Monday, a review of more than three decades of data offers a reality check: a provincial government is more likely to break or walk back a campaign promise than it is to keep it.
The researchers say a government's ability to follow through on its promises is dependent on the economic situation, the length of its mandate and the nature of the promises themselves.
"Promises that are fully within the government's purview and powers are easier to keep," said Lisa Birch, the co-founder of Polimeter and researcher at the Centre for the Analysis of Public Policy. Birch gave the example of the previous Coalition Avenir Québec government's pledge to strengthen the province's secularism laws, which required only passing legislation in the National Assembly, and defending the laws in court.
Those that involve meeting a target that requires, for example, overcoming a chronic labour shortage or negotiations with Ottawa are far harder to meet, said Alexandre Fortier-Chouinard, a post-doctoral researcher at Université Laval who works on the Polimeter project.
"The most difficult to fulfil were those that included both an action and the outcome that would follow from that action," said Fortier-Chouinard. The promise was ambitious and clear, but the outcome relied on a health-care system plagued by a shortage of workers. Despite government attempts to legislate higher patient quotas for physicians, the target proved mathematically impossible to hit.
"If you have a shortage of family doctors, no matter how hard you try, it's not going to be something you can fulfil," Birch said. The next government will face severe constraints of its own: a lack of workers in key sectors like construction, a persistent deficit and an unpredictable economic future given the ongoing trade war with the United States.
Several parties, including Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's Parti Québécois and the Conservatives under Éric Duhaime, have promised to scale back government bureaucracy while at the same time improving services in areas such as health care and education.
"When the parties promise at the same time to cut back the public sector to attain the deficit target, but also to maintain the essential services that the state provides, they enter into a contradiction," Birch said. Liberal Leader Charles Milliard, for instance, wants to build 100,000 new housing units annually. But according to modelling by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation , Milliard's proposal faces overwhelming hurdles.
In its most optimistic scenario, the CMHC projects Quebec can build roughly 72,000 units per year — largely due to a shortage of construction workers.
"Private actors, developers and contractors have to submit projects and get them funded... These things are all going to take time.
"Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon appears to be setting the table for confrontation with Ottawa. He’s promising to abolish the office of the lieutenant governor and fight any attempts by the federal government to increase immigration in the province. CBC Montreal News host Debra Arbec speaks with political analyst Antonine Yaccarini. When the CAQ took power in 2018, the party inherited a budget surplus from the Liberals and fully kept roughly 55 per cent of its platform commitments.
Plagued by a growing provincial deficit, battles over federal health transfers and disputes over public sector reforms, the government struggled to fulfil its promises. In its second term, the CAQ's success rate dropped to 37 per cent, with another 34 per cent left only partially completed. Overall, Fortier-Chouinard said that when "the economy is performing better, tax revenues increase for the government, and that helps balance the books and move forward with pledges.
""When the economy is not doing so well and there's a considerable amount of uncertainty, it's going to be a little bit harder for the government to pursue some of its pledges. " Beyond the party platforms, Birch noted that voters must also consider a government's "implicit mandate" — its ability to manage the unknown.
"When they're elected, they're elected to fulfil their election promises, but they're also elected to govern on all matters that arise during the course of the mandate," Birch said. "Ones that they could have foreseen, but also ones that they could never have foreseen.
For example, the CAQ could not have foreseen the pandemic.
" Benjamin Shingler is a reporter based in Montreal. He previously worked at CTV, The Canadian Press and the New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal. He can be reached at benjamin.shingler@cbc.ca.
Quebec Elections Campaign Promises Government Accountability Health Care Cost Of Living
Canada Latest News, Canada Headlines
Similar News: You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
'There’s pride in building trains at home': Quebec plant sees a comebackA Quebec train factory battered by years of layoffs is expanding as governments push to buy Canadian. Alstom's La Pocatière plant is hiring and scaling up for major domestic rail contracts, including a $4.7-billion VIA Rail project.
Read more »
Quebec election campaign enters final stretch as leaders court undecided votersQuebec party leaders are intensifying their campaigns in tight ridings with the election days away, as Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon seeks a majority and Québec solidaire spokesperson Ruba Ghazal warns against strategic voting.
Read more »
Quebec Election 2026: Anne Latendresse Runs for Québec Solidaire at 65Anne Latendresse, 65, runs for Québec solidaire in the Quebec election 2026. Older women remain underrepresented among candidates. Learn more.
Read more »
Élections Québec won’t change rules on speaking English at polling stationsÉlections Québec said it will not change its practice of instructing workers to limit their use of English at polling stations, despite a formal request from lawyers to suspend it.
Read more »