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Toss-up ridings in the Quebec election halved in a week, while the CAQ dropped from seven projected seats to zero, according to Qc125.com.
In the Quebec general election, the number of ridings considered toss-ups has halved in one week, with Christine Fréchette's CAQ party suffering the largest decline, according to poll analysis site Qc125.com. A week ago, 28 ridings were rated under 70 per cent certainty; as of Friday, Oct. 2, that number stands at 14.
Quebec Election Projections Shift Dramatically
Qc125.com now projects the Parti Québécois to form a majority government with 66 seats, up four from last week. A party needs 64 seats to form a majority. The Liberals are projected to win 37 seats, up two; the Conservatives 15, up one; and Quebec Solidaire nine, unchanged. Last week, the CAQ was projected to win seven ridings, but this week that number is zero.
Of the 14 toss-up ridings, the PQ leads in six, QS leads in four, and the Liberals and Conservatives lead in two apiece.
Toss-Up Riding Details: PQ and PCQ Battles
In Arthabaska-L'Érable, a 2025 byelection riding, PQ candidate Alex Boissonneault, who won the byelection with 46.4 per cent, holds a slight lead at 51 per cent over Conservative Tarek Henoud at 49 per cent. In Champlain, the 2022 CAQ winner Sonia LeBel received 55.9 per cent; now PQ René Branchaud leads with 58 per cent over Conservative Adriana Szalontai at 41 per cent.
Drummond-Bois-Francs saw CAQ Sébastien Schneeberger win with 49.8 per cent in 2022; now PQ Charles Pages leads at 52 per cent, with Conservative Myriam Cournoyer at 48 per cent. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, won by QS Alexandre Leduc in 2022 with 50.8 per cent, has Leduc holding a solid lead at 68 per cent over PQ Maude Brossard-Sabourin at 32 per cent.
Laurier-Dorion, won by QS Andrès Fontecilla with 48.8 per cent in 2022, shows Fontecilla's lead slipping to 52 per cent over Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin at 48 per cent. Maurice-Richard, where Haroun Bouazzi won with 34.7 per cent in 2022, has PQ Aisha Issa looking solid at 62 per cent, with Liberal Nada Boumeftah at 22 per cent and QS Anne Latendresse at 16 per cent.
Conservative and Liberal Gains in Key Ridings
In Mégantic, 2022 CAQ winner François Jacques received 46.5 per cent; now Conservative Jimmy Gagnon has solidified his place at 61 per cent ahead of PQ Debbie Fennety at 39 per cent, with Jacques fading below 1 per cent. Nicolet-Bécancour, won by CAQ Donald Martel with 47.3 per cent in 2022, has Conservative Guillaume Langlois pulling ahead at 53 per cent over PQ Jérôme Gagnon at 46 per cent.
Papineau, where former minister Mathieu Lacombe won with 53.6 per cent in 2022, shows Liberal Isabelle Sabourin pulling ahead at 58 per cent over PQ Isabelle Millette at 26 per cent and CAQ Linda Gauthier at 11 per cent. Richmond, won by CAQ André Bachand with 46.4 per cent in 2022, has PQ Bernard Sévigny pulling ahead at 45 per cent over Liberal Hugo Fontaine at 34 per cent, with CAQ Guillaume Rousseau passing.
Rosemont, won by QS Vincent Marissal with 37.6 per cent in 2022, has QS Gisèle Pouhe Njall remaining ahead at 57 per cent over PQ Pierre-Luc Brilliant at 43 per cent. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, a 2023 byelection riding won by QS Guillaume Cliche-Rivard with 44.5 per cent, shows Liberal Benoit Clermont pulling ahead at 63 per cent over Cliche-Rivard at 37 per cent.
Sherbrooke, won by QS Christine Labrie with 41.9 per cent in 2022, has QS Stéphanie Vachon pulling ahead at 50 per cent over PQ Gabriel Pallotta at 49 per cent. In the new riding of Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie, with no 2022 results, PQ Matalie Bisaillon remains ahead at 52 per cent over Conservative Laura Tremblay at 47 per cent, with CAQ Patrick Saindon at 1 per cent falling out of contention.
Quebec Election CAQ Parti Québécois Christine Fréchette Qc125.Com Toss-Up Ridings Quebec Solidaire
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