+34
Poll analysis suggests the Parti Québécois could win 62 seats in Quebec's Oct. 5 election, falling short of the 64 needed for a majority. With 28 ridings considered toss-ups, the PQ and Liberals hold advantages in several, while the CAQ risks losing multiple seats held by senior party figures.
If the polls are on track, the Oct. 5 Quebec general election will result in a much different electoral map than the one in 2022.
The poll analysis site Qc125.com projects the Parti Québécois to form the next government with 62 seats, followed by the Liberals , Conservatives , Quebec Solidaire and CAQ . A party needs 64 seats to form a majority. READ MORE: Quebec party platform tracker The site considers any riding with under 70 per cent certainty to win a “toss-up. ” There are 28 such ridings out of the 127 in the province.
The PQ are ahead in 14, CAQ in six, Liberals and QS in three, and the Conservatives in two. All but four toss-up ridings were won by the CAQ in 2022, including seats held by 13 cabinet ministers, the CAQ whip François Jacques, president of the National Assembly Nathalie Roy and former Premier François Legault.
The seats held by former ministers of Health , Finance , Transport and French-language are among those that the CAQ could lose. Below are the ridings considered toss-ups. The 2022 winner is stated, followed by the percentage of the popular vote they received. The toss up candidates are followed by the likelihood of them winning, shown in percentage.
All numbers are, as of Friday, Sept. 25. Beauharnois 2022 - CAQ Claude Reid PQ Alexandre Daneau is holding a slight lead over Reid. Brome-Missisquoi 2022 - CAQ former minister Isabelle Charest Liberal Frédéric Beauchemin has a decent lead over CAQ Manuela Goya and PQ Patrick Melchior .
Chambly 2022 - CAQ former minister Jean-François Roberge PQ Julie Guyot leads the former CAQ cabinet minister Chapleau 2022 - CAQ former minister Mathieu Lévesque Liberal Michel Langevin looks likely to take the seat from Lévesque . Côte-du-Sud 2022 - CAQ Mathieu Rivest Conservative Frédéric Poulin leads PQ Valerie Hamel .
Drummong-Bois-Francs 2022 - CAQ Sébastien Schneeberger PQ Charles Page leads Conservative Myriam Cournoyer . Granby 2022 - CAQ former minister François Bonnardel CAQ Claudine Leroux leads PQ Jean-François Arsenault . Groulx 2022 - CAQ Eric Girard PQ Marie-Claude Sarrazin leads the former finance minister .
Huntingdon 2022 - CAQ Carole Mallette Liberal Connor Stacey leads PQ Frédéric Laplante and CAQ Stéphane Bisaillon . Iberville 2022 - CAQ Audrey Bogemans PQ Camille Pellerin-Forget leads the CAQ incumbent . Daniel-Johnson 2022 - CAQ former minister André Lamontagne CAQ Christine Nadeau leads PQ Nathalie Boisclair .
L’Assomption 2022 - CAQ François Legault PQ Maxime Laport looks likely to take the former premier’s riding over CAQ Geneviève Pettersen . La Prairie 2022 - CAQ former minister Christian Dubé CAQ Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise leads PQ Frédéric Côté in the former health minister’s riding.
Laurier-Dorion 2022 - QS Andrès Fontecilla Fontecilla leads Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin . Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 2022 - CAQ Marie-Louise Tardiff PQ Élodie Murphy-Gauthier looks likely to take the seat from CAQ Guy Veilette . Louis-Hébert 2022 - CAQ former minister Geneviève Guilbault PQ Chloé Fauchon leads CAQ Marc-Antoine Bernier .
Mégantic 2022 - CAQ François Jacques Conservative Jimmy Gagnon leads PQ Debbie Fennety and the CAQ incumbent . Mirabel 2022 - CAQ former minister Sylvie D’Amours PQ Geneviève Couture leads CAQ Marjolaine Ferron . Montarville 2022 - CAQ former minister Nathalie Roy Roy leads PQ Jean-François Cloutier .
Nicolet-Bécancour 2022 - CAQ Donald Martel PQ Jérôme Gagnon leads Conservative Guillaume Langlois and the CAQ incumbent . Papineau 2022 - CAQ former minister Mathieu Lacombe CAQ Linda Gauthier leads Liberal Isabelle Sabourin and PQ Isabelle Millette .
Repentigny 2022 - CAQ former minister Pascale Déry PQ Nicolas Girard leads the former CAQ minister . Richmond 2022 - CAQ André Bachand CAQ Guillaume Rousseau is ahead of PQ Bernard Sévigny . Rosemont 2022 - QS Vincent Marissal QS Gisèle Pouhe Njall holds a comfortable lead over PQ Pierre-Luc Brilliant .
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne *2023 byelection - QS Guillaume Cliche-Rivard Cliche-Rivard leads Liberal Benoit Clermont . Sherbrooke 2022 - QS Christine Labrie PQ Gabriel Pallotta leads QS Stéphanie Vachon . Trois-Rivières 2022 - CAQ former minister Jean Boulet PQ Jean Pellerin leads CAQ leader Christine Fréchette . Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie 2022 - No results.
This is a new riding. PQ Natalie Bisaillon leads CAQ Patrick Saindon.
Quebec Election Parti Québécois Liberal Party Of Quebec Conservative Party Of Quebec Quebec Solidaire
Canada Latest News, Canada Headlines
Similar News: You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Élections Québec Poll Workers Restricted to English Under Bill 96 DirectiveA poll worker reveals Élections Québec directive limits English use with voters who lack an English eligibility certificate or Indigenous status, raising concerns ahead of the October 5 election.
Read more »
Elections Quebec Tells Poll Workers to Ask Before Speaking English to VotersElections Quebec poll workers must ask voters if they have English education eligibility or are Indigenous before speaking English, a directive tied to Bill 96 that anglophone groups say violates voting rights.
Read more »
Fréchette Alleges US Interference in Quebec Election, Refers Matter to CSISOutgoing Quebec premier Christine Fréchette says she is very concerned about possible US interference in the Oct. 5 election after reports a US think tank proposed covert support for the Parti Québécois, and confirms a US official sought direct tariff talks with Quebec.
Read more »
Quebec premier Fréchette seeks CSIS and PM meeting over alleged U.S. election interferenceOutgoing Quebec premier Christine Fréchette is seeking a meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney and CSIS involvement over alleged U.S. interference in the Quebec election, after reports that a U.S. think tank proposed covert support for the Parti Québécois.
Read more »