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WASHINGTON, July 15 - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday kicks off what is shaping up as a key week of commentary from U.S. central bank officials taking stock of slowed inflation and mulling whether to signal the start of interest rate cuts because of it.
The betting in recent days has tilted strongly towards the Fed, after a false pivot late last year that seemed to put rate cuts on the horizon, finally deciding that the pandemic-era outbreak of inflation has been controlled. The Consumer Price Index fell in June after remaining unchanged in May, while a Friday report on wholesale prices showed price pressures slowing in areas like healthcare that should further build the case for easier monetary policy.Powell speaks at 12:30 p.m. EDT Monday at the Economic Club of Washington.
Powell and other Fed officials say they want to begin cutting rates before inflation actually hits 2% since the impact of monetary policy takes time to reach the economy. Waiting too long, they fear, could keep interest rates too high and slow things more than necessary. Waller's remarks at a Kansas City Fed event could be of particular note. He has been an important voice in the inflation debate, considered hawkish by temperament but someone who has recently noted from his own research that the job market is at a point where further weakening could lead to a faster rise in the unemployment rate.
In late May Waller said he still wanted to see"several more months of good inflation data" before he would support a rate cut, and on Wednesday he will have the opportunity to say how much progress he feels has been made.
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